I can't believe it's been two years since I updated this blog. A lot has happened since then...in life and thus investing, as the two are intertwined for me, as an early retiree.
The fact that I'm typing this in April 2021 confirms I've survived, and for any human being over 50 survival into spring 2021 is a major achievement, not to be taken lightly.
I will try to post more regularly from now on, but for now as the end of another tax year brings that uncanny combination of necessary administration and thereby induced self-reflection, what follows is my attempt to make sense of recent times and provide myself with an aide memoire for future reference. If anyone else reads this, I hope you find it useful.
Lessons and reflections amidst (not quite after...) the COVID-19 pandemic
1. Think more deeply about resilience and how to put Taleb’s antifragility into practice:
Response: A cushion of surplus cash or near-cash liquid assets (currently Premium Bonds!) has a return well in excess of the negligible interest it may yield: the psychic income of reassurance in the face of adversity; the future returns NOT foregone as the cash cushion means there is less chance that investments will be sold at the worst possible moment amidst a March 2020-style drawdown.
2. Think more
deeply about diversification.
Going into
the pandemic I had too much in very similar UK-focused small cap dividend
paying funds and companies, many of which [temporarily?] suspended or severely
curtailed their dividends.
Responses:
Increased allocation to large cap growth strategies: Scottish Mortgage, Chawton Global Equity Income, and specialist areas such as BB Healthcare.
Consider/invest
in 'alternative assets' such as infrastructure, commercial property, loans, and
some areas of the bond market: Digital 9 Infrastructure; Urban Logistics REIT; Schroder Strategic Bond; VPC Specialty Lending.
Gold mining
equities are still equities: they may pay dividends but suffer stock-specific slings
and arrows like all tradeable investments. An invidious example of this was the
take-out of a profitable longstanding investment in Highland Gold at a ‘bargain’
price for the oligarchs, not shareholders like me, since ‘forced’ into lesser
gold plays like Anglo Asian Mining to keep the allocation in
income-generating gold producers. That said, the partial diversion of that
reluctantly received capital to Sylvania Platinum has worked well, so
far…
Monitor markets you don’t invest in, but which shape the wider investment landscape, particularly the government bond market, corporate credit, commercial property, above all the path of US interest rates and break-even inflation rates: US 10 Year Treasury Rates
3. If you’re
going to panic, panic early, slightly, and be prepared to swallow pride and
U-turn once the mistake becomes apparent.
Response: An
ill-timed sale of most of a holding in Chelverton UK Dividend Trust (SDV) at what turned out to be the very bottom in March 2020 (75p a share) has
been gradually reversed at subsequently higher prices. As of April 2021 the
number of SDV shares held is higher than in March 2020. SDV in early April 2021
is now priced at just over £2.
4. Invest decisively
in special situations even if they involve repurchasing previously unsuccessful
or only partially successful past investments.
Responses:
- K3 Capital radically restructured in summer 2020 with equity-funded
acquisitions at a placing price of £1.50. By March 2021 K3C shares were just
under £3 with a clear dividend strategy mapped ahead to 2023 (9p, 12p, 15p).
- Coral Products in December
2020 sold off unprofitable parts of its business, made acquisitions of
profitable firms, rented out one of its factories and ended up with approx. 1.2p
per share of earnings, 5p per share of cash, book value approx. 15-16p per
share, with a share price of 10p. Subsequent buy-back of shares has helped
increase the share price to 13.5p by April 2021. Not quite as compelling as in late 2020/early 2021, but arguably still below intrinsic value.
5. Think more
deeply about what ‘value investing’ means.
‘UGO’ might be an apt acronym:
Undervalued Growth Opportunities: not just discount relative to ‘inherited’
assets on the balance sheet, but current share price relative to growth
potential and/or a clear catalyst for the realisation of value.
Response: AVI Global Trust (formerly British Empire Trust) is an exemplar here: a set of
growth assets, but at sizeable discounts to instrinsic value, which has at last
invested in Berkshire Hathaway.
6. When in
doubt choose the investment trust version of a pooled investment strategy.
Revenue
reserves plus the ability to pay dividends out of capital = greater
sustainability of yield (relative to open-ended funds).
Public
listing plus independent Board plus annual and interim reports = greater
transparency (relative to open-ended funds).
Response:
shift of UK income allocation to investment trusts e.g. Diverse Income Trust.
7. The China
question.
In the light
of potential geopolitical conflicts be cautious in the allocation to ‘emerging’
markets and limit the China exposure of such investments.
Response:
Modest increase in exposure to Blackrock Frontiers Investment Trust
8. Monitor
and consider adding to existing holdings before buying new ones.
Response as
of spring 2021: if wanting to add more small cap value, consider adding to Chelverton UK Dividend Trust, Aberforth Split Level Income Trust
If ‘growth’
continues to be as 'temporarily' (?) neglected as it seems to have been in Q1 2021 consider adding to Edinburgh Worldwide and/or Scottish Mortgage
9. Have a
continually evolving watchlist (in my case with a contrarian or income generative tilt).
Response as of spring 2021: Jarvis Securities plc; The Scottish Investment Trust; Nippon Active Value
10. Remind
yourself of the extreme emotions investment can bring and resist short-term
mistakes by trying to keep a long-term perspective.
- Remind
yourself how bleak things looked in mid-March 2020.
- Remind
yourself how quickly and sharply sentiment and stock market prices reversed.
- Remind yourself
of selling Chelverton UK Dividend Trust at 75p on March 23rd 2020
and buying it back at much higher prices for the next 12 months.
- Remind
yourself of the better decisions made in 2020: buying Scottish Mortgage at
£5.12 on 24th March 2020; buying European Assets Trust at 77p on 1st
April 2020.
11. Keep
learning
Sources of
investment insight turned to in 2020/21:
- The ‘After Hours’ Video podcast every Tuesday evening on The Acquirers Podcast.
- The blog A Wealth of Common Sense and its weekly ‘Animal Spirits’ podcast on Wednesdays
PI World videos geared to UK smaller company retail investors
The writing of Morgan Housel
His book, The Psychology of Money and a blog he regularly posts: Blog · Collaborative Fund
The websites
of investment trusts and asset managers with a value tilt:
- AVI Global Trust/ AVI Family Holding Companies has some illuminating presentations
- RWC Equity Income (appointed managers of the Temple Bar investment trust in autumn 2020 just as a vaccine-induced 'value' rally strengthened):
- The Value Perspective: useful blog from The Schroders UK team of value investors.
Twitter accounts of investors and investment writers
Ian Cassel (@iancassel) / Twitter
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