As a soon to be ex-academic reading has been my life. As I
head towards early retirement I’ve radically altered my book-buying habits to
provide a rapid self-taught course in investing. Here are five works that have
changed not just how I think but how I’ve invested.
1.
Benjamin Graham The Intelligent Investor
There’s a reason why most investing reading lists include
Benjamin Graham’s classic text. Chapter 8’s famous personification of ‘Mr
Market’ has once again proved prescient in the wake of the EU referendum
result: “Often […] Mr Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him
and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly”.
The 2003 edition with Jason Zweig’s helpful chapter
summaries could do with an update. There is no shortage of recent material to
work into the commentaries.
2.
Lee Freeman-Shor (2015) The Art of Execution
Manager of the Old Mutual European Best Ideas fund, Lee
Freeman-Shor draws on analysis of nearly 2000 investments made for his fund by
some leading fund managers. Most of their decisions lost money, but the best
managers made up for this with big winners. The key to success is knowing what
to do with an initial winning or losing position to maximize gains and minimize
losses.
Freeman-Shor provides a helpful typology of investor
decision styles:
Rabbits: frozen into inaction, they hold onto losing
investments for too long.
Assassins: ruthless with losing investments, they follow stop-loss
rules and materially adapt when they are losing.
Hunters: buy more of an investment after an initial entry
starts to lose in the conviction of its long-term recovery. Following this
strategy emboldened me to add to a losing position in Aberdeen Latin American
Income. The incremental addition is up over 20% in three months, bringing the
total of three investments to near break-even.
Raiders: grab a small profit, but can sell out completely of
winning positions too soon.
Connoisseurs: sell a small portion of stakes in winning investments, but hold on to the bulk of their successful holdings.
3. Ben Carlson (2015) A Wealth of Common Sense
The text distills several years of wisdom:
- The necessity of articulating a clear investment policy
statement: Why are you investing? What is your risk appetite? What is your time
horizon?
- Making money in the long-term requires a willingness to
endure losses over several short-terms in an investing life-time: “Plan on
experiencing uneven results, frustrating periods, volatility, and the
occasional crash”.
4. Tobias
Carlisle (2014) Deep Value
A challenging read in the best sense that mixes business
biography and back-testing of deep value valuation metrics, ultimately to
highlight the power of mean reversion: “investors aren’t rewarded for picking
winners; they’re rewarded for uncovering mispricings – divergences between the
price of a security and its intrinsic value […] And the place to look for
mispricings is in disaster, among the unloved, the ignored, the neglected…”
5. S. Horan, R. Johnson, T. Robinson (2014) Strategic Value Investing
Another data-laden text, with chapters on different methods
of estimating the intrinsic value of potential investments and thereby what
both Benjamin Graham and latterly Seth Klarman term “the margin of safety”: the
potential difference between current stock market price and the underlying value of
the business.
As with Carlisle’s book this volume’s historic data
illustrate the long-term advantages of small-cap value, together with the attendant
short-term volatility - an important
lesson given what’s happened to my overweight in UK small and mid-caps since
late June.
No comments:
Post a Comment